Failing water resources
Mesopotamia, meaning the land between the two rivers, now modern-day Iraq has enjoyed plentiful water supplies since the dawn of civilisation. Now lower rainfall, the direct effect of climate change, is severely compounded by water policies in neighbouring countries that have shrunk vital water sources. The Tigris and Euphrates while accounting for 98% of the Iraq water supply do not originate in Iraq and are regulated by Iran and Turkey. Dam building on the headwaters of the both rivers have already significantly reduced flow rates which by 2030 are expected to have suffered a 50% decrease compared to 1980’s levels. Alongside this, research predicts that precipitation in Iraq will decrease by 15-20% this century, reducing the water in the Tigris and Euphrates even further with grave implications for groundwater levels.
Accessing sufficient and safe water has been exacerbated not only by the broader effects of climate change but deteriorating infrastructure and a lack of well structured government policies. Both quantity and quality has suffered as over exploitation of the aquifers and changed rainfall patterns have effected groundwater replenishment rates. Across many districts residents report they regularly run out of water entirely, while others have to rely on less or low quality water, many not having the means to buy-in supplies.
Water management and service delivery has deteriorated as a result of a lack of minimal investment in infrastructure development, clear strategies for social and economic development, and the lasting effects of conflict has had on irrigation and water systems. Damaged irrigation (and water treatment) systems characterise conflict-affected governorates particularly in some of what had been the most productive agricultural regions. Ninewa and Salah al-Din governorate’s which are mostly rainfall dependant for agriculture are worst affected, the legacy of conflict has resulted in unregulated water extraction and the overuse of surface water. The World Food Programmes’ analysis identifies that the levels of insufficient food consumption and the use of negative coping strategies such as borrowing money or eating less food among households, are almost double the national average. The two governorates are home to 2.5 million people who returned home after years of displacement, constituting more than half the returnees in Iraq.
The lack of new infrastructure combined with limited investment in upgrading or establishing water treatment plants has exacerbated water quality, especially in downstream governorates.
These combined factors mean over 50% of the country is facing a serious threat of land degradation with up to 40% desertification. It is estimated around 90% of the Iraqi Marshlands once covering an area of 35,000 sq. km have already dried up. Lake Sawa in Muthanna province has now completely dried up, critically low water levels are reported in Lake Hamrin in Diyala province and increasing pollution is seriously affecting Lake Razzaz in Karbala province.
In 2018, water quality in Basra declined substantially as rising water levels in the Persian Gulf combined with reduced water flows from upstream rivers and diminished rainfall to increase salinity in the city’s Shatt al-Arab river as sea water pushed upstream. This salinity seeps into the irrigation channels and spreads out across farmland rendering it unusable. This 2018 incident caused the hospitalisation of close to 120,000 people because of health issues related to water quality and led to thousands of citizens joining mass protests against local and federal government authorities. Security forces and politically affiliated armed groups responded with violence, killing at least 31 people and injuring hundreds of others.
Without rapid intervention the future is looking bleak, both the Tigris and Euphrates rivers are expected to completely dry inside Iraq by 2040 because of its neighbours’ water policies. And with the weak state of successive Iraqi governments, they’ve had little leverage to negotiate with Iran and Turkey over its water supply.
At the same time, the Iraqi government has subsidized the price of water for Iraqi customers, leading to overconsumption and waste by Iraqi citizens: Iraqis consume 392 litres per capita daily, while the international average is 200 litres per capita. Without reform in water pricing, overconsumption and undersupply will almost certainly continue, and the gap between supply and demand will widen.
