Aggravating Factors
Flaring:
Gas flaring is the burning of natural gas associated with oil extraction. Although gas flaring can be essential for safety reasons, for example to guard against the effects of sudden pressure increases in the underground accumulations, the high level of routine long term flaring has dire consequences for the environment and climate.
Iraq was the world’s second worst flaring country after Russia in 2020, burning some 17.37 billion cubic meters of gas that year, according to the World Bank. The International Energy Agency estimated that in 2019 Iraq contributed 9 per cent of all global methane emissions originating from the oil and gas sector. Gases that could potentially be refined are burnt off causing an environmental hazard, releasing black carbon, which is linked to air pollution, respiratory disease, and emissions of methane, a potent greenhouse gas. The flaring gas and smoke that are discharged into the sky from Iraq’s southern oilfields are visible from miles away, not only is the flaring intensifying climate change but it directly effects the local population’s health and welfare. Pollution monitoring testing amongst communities living in the vicinity of these oil fields show results indicating high levels of chemicals such as benzene, naphthalene and black carbon, which is harming the health of people nearby. Benzene in particular is directly linked to a heightened risk of childhood leukaemia. The Iraqi government is aware the impacts this could be having. An Iraq Health Ministry report blames air pollution for a 20% rise in cancer in Basra between 2015 and 2018. Satellite data show that Rumaila oil field in Basra is the world’s worst offender for gas flaring. Methane is a potent greenhouse gas, over 80 times more powerful than carbon dioxide in warming the atmosphere over 20 years. Methane is also short-lived with an atmospheric lifetime of only a decade, meaning that when reducing strategies come into effect emissions can at least quickly deliver significant climate and development benefits. Iraq has developed a roadmap to reduce gas flaring for the upcoming years, with the target of zero flaring by 2030, the first time Iraq has made an action plan for gas flaring which means the country has committed to not routinely flare associated gas in any new oil fields and will work to end routine flaring in existing oil fields as soon as possible and no later than 2030. The Global Methane Pledge, which was launched at COP26 in November 2021 and is led by the United States and the European Union, aims to catalyse action to reduce methane emissions. Over 100 countries are participating in the pledge, including Iraq, agreeing to take voluntary actions to contribute to a collective effort to reduce global methane emissions at least 30 per cent from 2020 levels by 2030. In December 2021 Iraq’s oil minister Ihsan Ismail pledged to cut flare gas by 90 percent by 2024. But despite contracts with foreign oil majors, the target is likely to face bureaucratic obstacles in a sector which provides 90 percent of government revenues. Over the past two years, the government has cut flare gas by just five percent.
There have however been positive developments, delivered over the course of 2020 – 2021 against the backdrop of the global pandemic the largest flare-gas to- power project in the Middle East (currently at 165 MW capacity) was constructed near the Sarqala oil field, Garmian block, South East Kurdistan. The plant is run on associated petroleum gas – found alongside oil deposits – from the Sarqala field, saving 840 tonnes of CO2 per day and cutting flaring by a third. According to the KRG’s Ministry of Electricity the plant is the only station that produces electricity utilising waste gas from the field that would otherwise be burnt off. This is exactly the type of project that urgently needs to be duplicated across Iraq to eliminate the polluting and wasteful practice of flaring.
Population growth:
The Republic of Iraq has an area of 168,754 sq miles (437,072 sq kilometres), and is mainly divided into 3 sections – a desert area in the west, a mountainous area in the north, and a large fertile plain in the middle of its southern area that is fed with water by the Euphrates and Tigris Rivers. As a whole, Iraq has a population density of 83 people per square kilometre (184/square mile). The capital and largest city, Baghdad, has a population of just over 6 million. It’s the Arab world’s second-largest city after Cairo and the second-largest city in Western Asia behind Tehran. Other major cities include Basra (pop: 2.3 million), Erbil (2 million), Sulaymaniyah (1.6 million), Mosul (1 million), and Kirkuk (1 million). According to Iraq’s Ministry of Planning, the country’s population reached 41 million at the end of 2021, with nearly 70% living in urban areas and 30% in rural areas. At the same time, the country faces a rate of population growth that is twice the global average, at 2.25 per cent a year adding just under 1 million people every year. Its population is set to reach 50 million by 2030 and 70 million by 2050, conceivably surpassing 100 million people by the end of 2085. By the end of the century, Iraq’s population is projected to reach 107.33 million people.
According to the United Nations Population Division, Iraq’s population growth rate in 2023 stands at 2.27% with the country’s current population now estimated at 45.7 million
This population growth is particularly concerning in light of Iraq’s increasingly critical water shortages. The land once known as the Fertile Crescent is rapidly becoming drier, hotter, and less agriculturally productive. According to the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) representative in Iraq, the country loses over 100 sq km of agricultural land annually – an area larger than Baghdad – due to climate change desertification, and increasing temperatures of agricultural land. This poor environmental reality, coupled with the high fertility rate and growing water scarcity, combine to pose insurmountable challenges to any hope of food self sufficiency.
A ballooning population only exacerbates the environmental challenges facing Iraq. As climate change renders more and more agricultural areas barren, urban expansion is consuming more land to accommodate the growing population. In Mosul alone, the housing deficit reached 200,000 housing units in 2022, compared to nearly 20,000 units in 2012. According to the Urban Planning Directorate of Mosul, this tremendous speed of population growth requires expanding the city outward by seven kilometres at the expense of agricultural lands. This expansion is consuming areas of the Nineveh Plains once considered the breadbasket of the region.
Countries that come to rely on food imports, such as Iraq are disproportionately affected. With a population exceeding 45 million and the most rapid population growth in the region, it is one of the most vulnerable countries to climate change, as its arid and semi-arid lands are unable to provide for the population.
The train of reproduction in Iraq, considering climate change and resource scarcity, requires a radical change not only in managing resources and adapting to changing climate, but in all human activity, including reproductive behaviours. Solving Iraq’s demographic crisis will require immediate and comprehensive action at both the state and individual level. The surge in population growth coincides with a notable absence of sex education and family planning.
Despite the clear and present danger of overpopulation, the Iraqi government does not seem willing to adopt the radical policies necessary to ensure prosperity and sustainable growth, even as overpopulation poses serious threats to internal stability.
The political background:
November 2022 – Iraq finally has a new government. A little over a year since the parliamentary election and amid ongoing instability and violence, Mohammed al- Sudani – the preferred choice of the largest parliamentary bloc, the Shia Coordination Framework – was sworn in as prime minister last month, alongside 21 of 23 cabinet ministers. Sudani’s agenda centres on fighting corruption, creating economic opportunities, and improving public services. However, given his party’s near total dependence on larger coalition partners, the business of governing will not be straightforward. The political situation in Iraq is internally and externally fragile, and built on tenuous political alliances. Moreover, the legitimacy of the new government will likely suffer in the face of growing public frustration with the failures of the state to provide basic services. Sudani should focus on a handful of areas, particularly public services, to be able to deliver some modest success. To assist in this, Europe should continue to provide technical expertise on electricity and renewable energy, since climate change is notably absent from Sudani’s agenda, despite Iraq being one of the countries most at risk of extreme heat events. It is far from clear that climate action will receive the high-level support and funding it requires. Political competition is intense, particularly between armed Shia parties – which govern some of the areas most affected by climate change but prioritise other issues. This political chaos is underlain by a weak understanding of climate change among the country’s ruling elite. Critical policy and institutional reforms are needed on water security. However, the delays in forming a government after parliamentary elections in October 2021 impeded the Government’s ability in passing a 2022 budget to address the effects of the climate crisis and transboundary river flows, as well as investing in climate adaptation to adjust to the damaging effects the drought has already had on agriculture, livestock, and livelihoods. Access to reliable and affordable water supply, sanitation, and irrigation alongside environmental protections are urgent priorities for the new government to respond to household needs, economic recovery, and the broader question of water security in Iraq.
Despite Iraq benefiting from a revenue windfall in a period of high oil prices it remains to be seen if there will be a new budget to distribute funds to address climate change by way of mitigation and adaptation or other issues that require long-term investment and commitment. Further, international assistance and investment is needed to tackle the impact of climate change in Iraq and support climate-adaptation pathways at the local and national level.