Migration
An estimated seven million Iraqi’s have already been affected by drought and the risk of displacement.
As land suitable for farming shrinks and rural jobs disappear, ordinary Iraqis are moving to cities in search of work. This urbanisation coupled with rapid population growth and inefficient water use by the agricultural and industrial sectors is propelling a demand for more water compounding issues further.
The increased pressure on services in host communities pushes up food prices, and exacerbates social tensions, leading to protests and even violence as witnessed in Basra. Most cities are unlikely to be equipped with the resources, systems, or social safety nets to accommodate individuals in search of economic opportunities and reliable incomes. Often migrants simply find themselves competing for low paid work such as day labourers.
Competition over limited urban housing is intensified by domestic migration flows, and is fostering the growth of slums in affected cities. Meanwhile, these climate migrants are often marginalised and impoverished, and tend to be concentrated in parts of the city that are poor, unsafe, and have the fewest services.
Without preparation and planning, the scale of environmental change is likely to be devastating and may force many more Iraqis to relocate in order to survive. Climate migration is already a measurable reality. At the end of 2021, IOM – International Organisation for Migration – recorded approximately 20,000 people displaced due to water scarcity (in 10 of the 19 governorates), high salinity, and poor water quality across Iraq, while a 2021 study by the Norwegian Refugee Council found that in drought-affected areas, 1 in 15 households had a family member forced to migrate in search of work. As environmental changes intensify, displacement is likely to increase exponentially.
A population analysis report by UNFPA (United Nations Population Fund) shows that ongoing migration has led to an imbalanced population distribution with nearly 70% of people living in urban areas, which negatively affects the agricultural development. Women and girls are expected to travel longer distances to collect water, exposing them to higher risks of gender-based violence. The loss of livelihoods can lead to increases in child marriage and teenage pregnancies, and disputes between communities. According to UNICEF’s Children’s Climate Risk Index, children and young people are at medium-high climate risk in Iraq, with groups in vulnerable situations and certain areas of the country at higher risk.
Iraq signed up to its first Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) to the Paris Agreement which identifies a number of mitigation measures for the energy sector to commit to. However, while the commitments in Iraq’s NDC (National Determined Contribution, to the Paris Agreement) are commendable, the NDC document does not acknowledge the risk or impact of displacement due to climate change, or the need to prepare or build resilience. These gaps undermine the allocation of resources and actionable commitments to mitigate and address climate migration, as well as leverage the contributions of migrants.
Inter-Ministerial Technical working group on Migration and National Strategy for Migration Management in Iraq
In 2020, the Government of Iraq established a Technical Working Group on Migration with the technical support of the International Organisation for Migration (IOM) to implement the provisions of the Global Compact for Migration. In October 2020, the National Strategy for Migration Management was endorsed by the Government of Iraq, which is the migration policy framework for implementing the Global Compact for Migration in Iraq. As the key institutional pillars for implementing the Global Compact for Migration in Iraq, the Technical Working Group and National Strategy for Migration Management are vital resources to engage in policy decisions and planning related to climate migration.
The challenges of climate change are real and present, its effect on daily life not only leads to internal displacement but the risky, uncertain and occasionally deadly path to Europe. The European Union received around 27,000 asylum applications from Iraqi nationals in 2022. Those migrants hiring the services of people smugglers put their lives in peril after parting with thousands of dollars. There is no guarantee they will arrive safely at their destination and to compound matters claiming asylum in Europe is a lottery. Depending on the county selected a range of outcomes can be possible. On the whole, for Iraqis this is likely to be negative and for many years inconclusive.