Summary

Such events as those in Basra have finally brought the issue of climate change into Iraq’s political debate but the country’s leaders have been slow to take meaningful action. Climate change should be a national priority for Iraq but there has been little drive for urgent action by policymakers and wasteful practices continue that assume water availability is unlimited and that energy and resource conservation unnecessary.

Iraq’s weak internal governance prevents it from improving water management, managing inter-provincial and inter-tribal conflict, and attracting investment and expertise to create new green-economy jobs and adapt to the changing climate. Public awareness of climate risks is growing, but too few political leaders prioritise the issue.

Iraq urgently needs to implement newly formulated policies and action plans and allocate significant funding towards this agenda but this means persuading Iraq’s political leaders of the benefits of such an agenda is in the interest of the population and internal governance.

According to the United States Agency for International Development, there are 4.1 million Iraqis that need humanitarian assistance, including 920,000 who are food insecure. These numbers will certainly escalate as the population increases. And the Iraqi government’s inability to solve current problems suggests they will continue to mount particularly considering the problems with declining agricultural productivity.

While impacts such as the loss of livelihoods or migration are more immediately visible, additional consequences like increased intra-communal tension and lack of faith in government and security actors must be carefully monitored. These issues have previously foreshadowed or instigated conflict in Iraq.

The potential human costs of these changes are immense. Seven million Iraqis have already been affected by drought and the risk of displacement. According to Iraq’s Ministry of Water Resources, the country could face a shortfall of as much as 10.8 billion cubic meters of water annually by 2035. This deficit is based on the shortfall between what is predicted to reach Iraq and what Iraq will need for agriculture, industrial and domestic use and does not include the potential effects of climate change on snow and rain fall and the losses due to evaporation and increased temperatures. Iraq’s new government will have its work cut out for it in addressing the water crisis and it doesn’t have time on its side.

Iraqi youth will bear the brunt of climate change conflict as their generation matures in a country entirely different from that of their forebears. Already girls from impoverished families are facing heightened risk of child marriage and the curtailment of education. Child labour is also on the rise. Young boys and men are at an increased risk of recruitment by state and non-state armed groups, potentially exposing them to violent ideologies and paving the way for trauma-afflicted adolescence.

It is clear climate change and the environmental degradation only further reduces already limited employment possibilities drawing ever more youth to work in the rapidly expanding drug trade.

The government and humanitarian-development community need to respond now and in collaboration with public and private partners, civil society, women, youth, migrants, displaced people and affected communities, to invest in solutions and improve prospects for long-term food security, prevent the magnification of socioeconomic challenges, and by using a human rights-based approach, ensure that the impact of climate change on people in Iraq, particularly those in the most vulnerable situations, can be cushioned. International support is crucial for the country to continue to take action to manage its own natural resources, starting with water, investment in technological innovation such as the use of renewable energy and allocating sufficient resources to sustainable solutions.

Now is the time for the international community to support Iraq in harnessing its potential for sustainable growth, advancing progress toward the Sustainable Development Goals, tackling the climate crisis, upholding its human rights obligations to prevent the foreseeable adverse effects of climate change – and to adapt to those that are already happening – on all of Iraq’s diverse communities, and providing a decent life for its population.